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Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal said he believes that 2023 will be a positive year for risk assets and cryptocurrencies.
In a new interview on YouTube channel Overpriced JPEGs, the macro guru says he believes Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) will go up in 2023, albeit with some chopping and uncertainty due to policy changes from the Federal Reserve.
Pal also looks at how market cycles in the past have reacted to signals from the Fed.
“That’s how I frame it this time. So 2018 was the last time the Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates. They didn’t cut until I think it was August 2019. So what happened is when the Fed held back, the market raged upside down. They fell about 30% and then recovered, so it’s not much different from now.
If I look at the year ahead, the S&P is yielding about 10%, the Nasdaq is about 14%, [tech stocks like ARK] doing about 18%, so that’s good. Bitcoin hits 100% and that’s after a 400% rise…
So I think it’s going to be a positive year but a choppy year where one minute you think, ‘Oh my God, this is going straight to the top,’ then it’s like ‘Oh my God, it’s coming back down, we’re all going to die,’ and then be stable. I think we’re going to look back and say ‘OK, we survived, and we actually made some money.’”
Pal also commented on the overall macro environment, saying that he believes we are in the midst of a “casual recession”.
“According to me [what] we actually got here is a very ordinary recession driven by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and prices rising too fast, which means that people can’t buy a lot of stuff because your wages don’t go up so things slow down. .”
Bitcoin is changing hands for $23,671 at the time of writing while Ethereum is moving for $1,629.
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