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Historic Downtrend in September
Over the nine-year period from 2014 to 2022, Bitcoin’s performance in September was mostly bearish. Closing prices in September are often lower than opening prices, indicating a general downtrend that month.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Year by Year
2014: Opened at $479 and closed at $391, down 18.37%.
2015: Opened at $230 and closed at $236, a slight increase of 2.6%. This year is an exception to the general downtrend.
2016: Opened at $570 and closed at $608, an increase of 6.67%. Another exception to the downtrend.
2017: Opened at $4,734 and closed at $4,326, down 8.62%. This year there was a significant intra-month decline of almost 40%.
2018: Opened at $7,015 and closed at $6,597, down 5.96%.
2019: Opened at $9,593 and closed at $8,298, down 13.49%.
2020: Opened at $11,658 and closed at $10,778, a decline of 7.55%.
2021: Opened at $47,118 and closed at $43,834, down 6.97%.
2022: Opened at $20,049 and closed at $19,429, down 3.09%.
Average Decline in September
Excluding the two years (2015 and 2016) where Bitcoin experienced a September rally, the average decline for the following years was about 9.03%.
Source: TradingView
Year by Year Amplitude Analysis:
For Bitcoin, the month of September is historically marked by significant price fluctuations. A detailed examination of the last nine years reveals the amplitude of these price movements, thus providing a clearer picture of the matter crypto currency behavior in September. Below uses the formula: (High – Low) / Low.
2014: Bitcoin experienced an amplitude of 36.16%, swinging between a low of $365 and a high of $497.
2015: The amplitude was weaker this year, recorded at 10.31%, with prices oscillating between $223 and $246.
2016: Bitcoin amplitude reaches 10.95%, as price moves between $566 and $628.
2017: This year saw a dramatic amplitude of 67.43%, with Bitcoin prices ranging from $2,973 to $4,979.
2018: The amplitude was 21.62%, as Bitcoin price varied between $6,094 and $7,411.
2019: Bitcoin experienced a significant amplitude of 41.97%, with the price fluctuating between $7,714 and $10,949.
2020: The amplitude for the year was 22.60%, as Bitcoin price moved within a range of $9,825 and $12,065.
2021: Bitcoin amplitude recorded at 33.81%, with price swinging between $39,573 and $52,956.
2022: The amplitude reaches 25.47%, as Bitcoin price varies between $18,157 and $22,781.
Below uses the formula: (High – Low) / ( (High + Low)/2 ).
2014: The amplitude was 28.91%, with Bitcoin prices ranging between a low of $365 and a high of $497.
2015: Bitcoin amplitude reached 10.14%, oscillating between $223 and $246.
2016: The amplitude for the year was 10.77%, as Bitcoin price moved from a low of $566 to a high of $628.
2017: Bitcoin experienced an amplitude of 50.15%, with prices fluctuating between $2,973 and $4,979.
2018: The amplitude for the year was 20.18%, as Bitcoin price varied between $6,094 and $7,411.
2019: Bitcoin saw an amplitude of 33.33%, with prices ranging from $7,714 to $10,949.
2020: The amplitude for the year reached 20.41%, as Bitcoin prices oscillated between $9,825 and $12,065.
2021: Bitcoin amplitude was 28.28%, with prices moving between $39,573 and $52,956.
2022: The amplitude for the year is 22.22%, as Bitcoin price varies between $18,157 and $22,781.
Average September Amplitude
The average amplitude of Bitcoin in September for the years 2014 to 2022 using the traditional formula is approximately 29.92%. Using the alternative formula, the average amplitude is approximately 24.91%
Current Bitcoin Data
Bitcoin started in September 2023 with an opening price of $25,927. Despite hitting a monthly high of $26,429, the cryptocurrency experienced a decline, recording a low of $25,333. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $25,850.
As September progresses, market analysts have projected a potential low point for Bitcoin at the close of September.
Predicting the Future Based on Historical Trends
Historical Drop: Looking at past performance, Bitcoin’s most notable drop in September would be -3.09% in 2022. If 2023 reflects this trend, Bitcoin could potentially settle around $25,107 by the end of the month.
The average decline over the years stands at -9.22%. If this average is any indication of this year’s performance, Bitcoin may end September near $23,530.
Amplitude Analysis: Using an alternative amplitude formula, Bitcoin’s amplitude for September 2018 is estimated to be around 19.51%. The most controlled September amplitude was recorded in 2015 at 10.31%. If this month’s price movement is in line with this weak amplitude, especially in a downward trajectory, Bitcoin’s valuation could fall to $23,240 by the end of September.
Taking into account the average amplitude over the years, which stands at around 27.21%, the worst-case scenario is that Bitcoin falls to $18,860 by the close of the month.
However, Bitcoin price potentially bucked historical trends and closed in September above $25,927, similar to the positive performance observed in 2015 and 2016.
While these projections provide a sense of historical trends, the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies means that actual results may vary. Investors and traders are advised to be careful and continue to follow market developments.
Disclaimer & Copyright Notice: The contents of this article are for informational purposes only and are not intended as financial advice. Always consult a professional before making any financial decisions. This material is proprietary Blockchain.News. Use, duplication or distribution without written permission is prohibited. Proper credit and direction to the original content is required for any permitted use.
Image source: Shutterstock
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