Bitcoin price stays near $23K as data shows hodlers not selling BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) refused to give up gains at its Jan. 23 Wall Street open as US equities opened higher.

The dollar sagged as risk assets rejected the retracement

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD continuing to circle $22,800 at the time of writing.

The pair has managed to maintain its trading range over the weekend, with a local low of $22,315 allowing the bulls to avoid a major pullback.

The tone remains buoyant among risk assets on the day, with the S&P 500 up 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index trading 2% higher.

Gold also disappointed those hoping a retracement would occur after weeks of impressive returns, something Alisdair McLeod analysts put down on the classic principle of supply and demand.

“Efforts to knock down gold continue to fail,” he said comment on the daily chart of XAU/USD.

“While technical analysts suggest a correction is imminent, they don’t seem to realize that central banks are buying every ounce they can get their hands on.”

With that said, the already flagging US dollar index (DXY) only managed a modest bounce at the open before returning to a downtrend, circling 102 at the time of writing.

Among Bitcoin analysts, the jury remains out on whether the current rally truly marks a trend change after more than a year of bear market.

“There are signs this could be the start of an uptick, and there are also signs it is a bear market rally. Until I see confirmation, I focus on the data that matters so I’ll know if a potential breakout is a justifiable move or a higher probability of a fake,” Keith Alan, co-founder of on-chain data resource Material Indicators, summarized.

Alan continued noting that one macro trigger in particular still needs to be logged to call bear time.

“According to the economic data we have seen so far, the upward trend in unemployment, which historically marked a low point, is still missing,” he wrote.

“Sure, maybe ‘this time is different’, but I’m looking for a full candle above the Sunday 200 MA to consider it a confirmed break.”

Alan referenced Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average, a key trend line that Bitcoin has yet to reclaim after losing it as support late last year.

Bitcoin sellers resist the urge to sell

With Bitcoin up 40% in January, the next point of interest is focused on the temptation to take profits.

Related: Capitulation out of BTC metrics — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

In the latest issue of its weekly newsletter, “The Week On-Chain,” analytics firm Glassnode nevertheless pointed out that long-term holders remain steadfast in their resolve not to exit the market – even after more than a year of losses.

The behavioral cohort analysis shows that short-term holders and miners have been motivated by the opportunity to liquidate some of their holdings. On the contrary, the supply held by long-term holders continues to grow, which can be said to be a signal of strength and confidence across this group,” reads part of its conclusion.

“Given the effect long-term shareholders have on macro trends, watching their spending is likely the main tool to track over the coming weeks.”

Long term holders are defined as entities that hold coins for at least 155 days.

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