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Bitcoin (BTC) keeps traders guessing as the future of the bull market hinges on the last week of February.
In a few tweets on Feb. 17, popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital flagged the important ongoing resistance battle in BTC/USD across various timeframes.
The price of Bitcoin matches the downward trend of a bearish market
Bitcoin hit a new six-month high this week as the last chapter of its recovery in 2023 keeps the bull-bear debate raging.
After an initial consolidation this month, February turned out to be a turning point for Bitcoin’s price strength. Profits are much harder to cement than they were in January, when BTC/USD was up nearly 40%.
For Rekt Capital, now is the time to pay attention — it doesn’t matter whether trading on daily, weekly, or even monthly timeframes.
The weekly chart represents perhaps the biggest struggle after the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin is currently trying to beat the resistance area it failed to conquer last August, so far without success.
“Ultimately, a Weekly Close above this key area is what BTC needs to achieve in order to break through this resistance confluence area to continue to move higher,” Rekt Capital write as part of its latest update on the weekly chart.
The picture is complicated thanks to two other major resistance trend lines located overhead, these come in the form of the 50-week and 200-week moving averages (MA).
As Cointelegraph reports, it has also just formed their first “deadly cross” – a potential nail in the coffin for those hoping that a new bull market will kick off.
On the monthly time frame, an equally tense situation is developing. Here, too, BTC/USD is “getting ever closer to breaking a Macro Downtrend,” said Rekt Capital.
The upcoming monthly close will be a determining factor, as continued strength could see Bitcoin starting in March outside descending trend line since November 2021 all-time high.
Although this will be a significant event, certain signs already suggested that it can come true. Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was previously at all-time lows, “has confirmed a new Bull Trend.”
BTC price analysis: Pope targets “bull market maxis”
Closer to home, intraday activity remains tantalizing as Bitcoin’s gains hold on to some of this week’s gains.
Related: Bitcoin Metrics prints ‘mother of all BTC bullish signals’ for 4th time
However, two runs above $25,000 failed to produce a resistance-support flip, and at the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $24,500, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
While Rekt Capital is celebrate a confirmed run, others remain fearful that the entire episode has been the result of manipulation by market whales.
Analyzing the order book activity on Binance, monitoring the resource Material Indicator seems to leave no doubt about the spurious nature of the current price “strength”.
Whales have driven bid support higher, creating the illusion of a “bull market breakout”.
“We’ve had 2 rejections so if they get that it’s a bonus,” Material Indicator write about the twins moving above $25,000.
“IMO, the goal is to increase distribution reach and decrease liquidity to a maxis bull market.”
An accompanying order book chart captures the action, along with declining whale volume as spot prices increase — a phenomenon the Material Indicator has recently dubbed “whalish divergences”.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are those of the authors themselves and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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